Supply Chain Dive reported this week on a new JPMorganChase Institute index tracking customs duty payments by midsize U.S. companies. The finding is blunt: despite some pullback from the peak, tariff burdens remain at more than twice the pre-2025 baseline. The index, set to 100 in October 2024, hit 314 in October 2025 before easing to 201 by May 2026, then ticking back up to 222 in June. That is the last month for which data is available.<\/p>\n
Apparel manufacturing, for example, saw its effective tariff burden climb from roughly 3.3% in the April 2023 to March 2024 window to 5.2% a year later. Government tariff revenue peaked at $34 billion in October 2025 and sat at $23.7 billion by June, according to figures cited by Supply Chain Dive. For any business or individual who depends on moving goods through U.S. customs, the takeaway is the same: the cost of doing cross-border commerce has not returned to anything resembling its 2024 level.<\/p>\n
The JPMorgan analysis zeroes in on midsize firms \u2014 those with annual revenue between $10 million and $1 billion or 50 to 499 employees. Supply Chain Dive notes these companies carry limited purchasing power, tighter profit margins, and fewer capital resources than the multinational giants that can absorb duty costs or renegotiate with suppliers. They are also underrepresented in the policy discussions that shape tariff schedules.<\/p>\n
That description fits a large slice of Viabox’s customer base. Small importers and resale operators in the Gulf, Latin America, and Southeast Asia who source from U.S. retailers, marketplaces, or wholesalers are effectively operating at the margin these data points describe. A 5-point tariff increase on a category can wipe out the entire spread on a single resale lot. When the base cost of goods in the U.S. creeps upward because of duties, the person who ships those items to Riyadh, Mexico City, or Manila absorbs the difference in their landed cost.<\/p>\n
If you buy directly from U.S. stores \u2014 whether a single pair of sneakers, a bulk order of electronics accessories, or a seasonal clothing drop \u2014 the tariff environment is already baked into shelf and listing prices. Retailers are not uniformly passing costs back to consumers; they are making strategic choices about where the money goes.<\/p>\n
Retail Dive reported that Macy’s Inc. received $116 million in tariff refunds and is directing the bulk of it toward brand-building, store overhauls, and mitigating fuel volatility. Only a small portion will go to price reductions on select items like furniture and fine jewelry. The company posted net income of $169 million in its most recent quarter, nearly doubling year over year, and is backing away from broad promotions. In other words, the money is not flowing back into deep discounts that would make your U.S. sourcing trip cheaper.<\/p>\n
For a cross-border shopper, this translates into a practical reality: U.S. retail prices in tariff-affected categories (apparel, electronics components, furniture, certain consumer goods) are unlikely to see the sweeping markdowns that might have offset higher shipping and duty costs on the importing side. Planning purchases around sales events or category-specific promotions \u2014 rather than assuming a general price reset \u2014 becomes more important than it was in 2024.<\/p>\n
The tariff math is not something a single shopper or a small reseller can lobby out of the federal budget. What you can control is how you buy, consolidate, and ship. A few practical levers stand out:<\/p>\n
For shoppers who do not have a physical address in the United States, a U.S. forwarding address becomes a practical way to centralize multiple store orders, consolidate them into a single outbound shipment, and present one clean customs package to the destination authority. Services like Viabox are built around that exact workflow: receive packages from any U.S. retailer, store and combine them if you want, and ship as one parcel to 150+ countries \u2014 with no monthly subscription, so you only pay when you actually send a shipment. That flexibility is especially useful when you are testing a new product line or building a resale inventory without committing to a warehouse lease.<\/p>\n
The JPMorgan data is a reminder that the tariff overhang is not a passing quarter; it is a structural cost layer that will influence U.S. retail pricing for the foreseeable future. You do not need to be a supply chain economist to feel it in the price tag on a U.S. online store. What you can do is buy strategically, consolidate intelligently, and make sure your shipment clears customs smoothly the first time. In a market where the base cost of goods is trending upward, the efficiency of your shipping and customs process is one of the few variables still in your control.<\/p>\n
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